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Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk and A Prudent Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.