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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."