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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.